It is quite the dilemma for Winnipeg Blue Bomber fans as they prepare to hunker down and watch the jockeying for Canadian Football League playoff positions while their squad takes a knee in a bye week.
Never mind the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and Ottawa REDBLACKS scrapping for first in the East Division. That’s intriguing, but doesn’t – yet – impact the teams jockeying for playoff spots in the West Division.
But what does a Bomber fan do about tonight’s tilt between the B.C. Lions and Edmonton Eskimos in terms of temporary allegiance?
And what of Saturday night’s showdown between the Saskatchewan Roughriders and Calgary Stampeders?
Consider this: the league has determined there are 64 different playoff permutations heading into Week 19 action, and 15 different potential orders of finish. As it relates to the Bombers, even at 9-7 and on a four-game winning streak, there’s still a possibility to finish anywhere from second in the West to fifth, and out of the playoffs.
After this week’s bye, Winnipeg is home to Calgary on Friday, October 26th and then on the road for their regular season finale in Edmonton on November 3rd. Win both and, should the Riders drop their final two games, the West Division Semi-Final would be back at Investors Group Field for the second straight year.
The Bombers could lose both of their final two games and still make the playoffs, but that would depend on the Lions losing their final three games. They could even split, finish 10-8 and still miss the playoffs.
We’ll confuse things further and muddy the playoff picture below, but as it relates to this weekend, the numbers crunched by sportsclubstats.com indicate Bomber fans should cheer for an Eskimos win tonight while a Stampeder win on Saturday would help keep alive the shot at a home playoff game.
Sportsclubstats.com has the Bombers playoff chances at 88.9 percent, with Edmonton at 56.6 percent and B.C. at 54.5 percent. An Edmonton win Friday in Vancouver boosts the Bombers playoff chances by 8.3 percent, while a Lions victory drops the number by 8.7 percent.
Here’s what is important as it relates to the Bombers:
- Even with their 31-0 victory over the Riders last weekend, the Bombers have lost the season series 2-1 after dropping both the Labour Day Classic and Banjo Bowl. So, should the two squads finish with the same record, the Riders would win the tiebreaker.
- The Bombers split their season series with the Lions, but own the tiebreaker in a points for/against scenario, having out-scored the Lions 58-39 (a 41-19 win and a 20-17 loss).
- The Bombers and Eskimos season series is even at 1-1, with the last game of the regular season on the horizon.
What currently works against the Bombers are the possibilities of three and four-way ties, especially if they do not win the last game in Edmonton.
Here are some scenarios, as provided by CFL statistician Steve Daniel and Drew Edwards of 3Down Nation:
Four teams tied at 10-8 (tiebreaker decided by common record among tied teams):
How it would unfold:
- Edmonton: 8-8 + 2-0 = 10-8; 5-3 among tied teams
- Saskatchewan: 10-6 + 0-2 = 10-8; 4-3 among tied teams
- B.C.: 8-7 + 2-1 = 10-8; 3-4 among tied teams
- Winnipeg: 9-7 + 1-1 = 10-8; 3-5 among tied teams
Three teams tied at 10-8 (tiebreaker again decided by common record among tied teams):
How it would unfold:
- Edmonton: 8-8 + 2-0 = 10-8; 3-2 among tied teams
- Saskatchewan: 10-6 + 0-2 = 10-8; 3-2 among tied teams
- Winnipeg: 9-7 + 1-1 (including a loss in Edmonton at the end of the season) = 10-8; 2-4 among tied teams
Three teams finish at 9-9 (tiebreaker decided by common record among tied teams):
How it would unfold:
- B.C.: 8-7 + 1-2 (beating Edmonton, losing to Calgary and Saskatchewan) = 9-9; 3-2 among tied teams
- Edmonton: 8-8 + 1-1 (lose to B.C., beat Bombers) = 9-9; 3-3 among tied teams
- Winnipeg: 9-7 + 0-2 = 9-9; 2-3 among tied teams
Saskatchewan and Edmonton finish 10-8; Bombers and B.C. finish 9-9
How it would unfold:
Bombers drop final two; Lions lose to Edmonton and Calgary, defeat Saskatchewan
How it would unfold:
Edmonton grabs second with a 6-4 record vs West to Saskatchewan’s 5-5; Winnipeg takes fourth spot after winning points-differential tiebreaker with B.C.
Saskatchewan, Edmonton and B.C. finish 10-8; Bombers finish 9-9
How it would unfold:
Saskatchewan loses their last two; Esks win final two; Lions beat Saskatchewan and Calgary, but lose to Edmonton; Bombers lose both
How it would unfold:
Edmonton takes second with a 3-2 record among tied teams; Saskatchewan finishes third with a 2-2 record among tied teams; Lions finish fourth with a 2-3 record among tied teams; Bombers out at 9-9
Saskatchewan, Edmonton and Winnipeg finish 10-8, Lions finish 9-9
How it would unfold:
Saskatchewan loses final two; Edmonton wins both of their final two; Bombers beat Calgary, lose to Edmonton; B.C. loses to Edmonton and Calgary, beats Saskatchewan.
How it would unfold:
Edmonton would take second with a 3-2 record among tied teams, Saskatchewan would be third, Winnipeg fourth and B.C. would be eliminated.
Saskatchewan and Calgary finish 12-6: Bombers finish 11-7, B.C. is 10-8, Edmonton 8-10.
How it would unfold:
Calgary loses final two; Saskatchewan wins final two; Bombers beat Calgary and Edmonton, B.C. beats Edmonton and Calgary, loses to Saskatchewan; Edmonton drops final two.
How it would unfold:
Riders finish first at 12-6 and win tiebreaker over Calgary; Stamps would be second at 12-6; Winnipeg third at 11-7; B.C. would get crossover at 10-8 and Edmonton would be out at 8-10.
