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September 28, 2018

Game Preview | WPG at EDM

left to right -Winnipeg Blue Bombers player #8 (DB) Chris Randle shakes hands with Bombers player #15 (QB) Matt Nichols following Randle's touchdown during the 4th quarter of CFL game action between the Edmonton Eskimo's and the Winnipeg Blue Bombers at the Brick Field located at Commonwealth stadium in Edmonton Saturday, September 30/2017. Bombers won the game 28-19. (CFL PHOTO -Walter Tychnowicz )


GAME 14 | WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS (6-7) at EDMONTON ESKIMOS (7-6)

THE 4-1-1

Kickoff: 6 p.m. CDT, Saturday; Commonwealth Stadium, Edmonton
TV: TSN, RDS-2, ESPN+
Radio: CJOB
The forecast: Sunny with a high of 6C. Night: clear. Low -6C.
Vegas line: The Eskimos are favoured by 6.5 points.
Streaks: Winnipeg: 1W; Edmonton: 1L
Home/Road: Edmonton is 5-1 at home; the Bombers are 2-4 on the road.
Series: The Eskimos lead the all-time series (since 1938) 102-88-3.
Recent history: The Eskimos rallied from an eight-point fourth quarter deficit to edge the Bombers 33-30 in the CFL season opener back in June. Edmonton has won two straight against Winnipeg, including last year’s West Division Semi-Final.


3 STORYLINES

1. CRUNCH TIME

It’s incorrect to call this a ‘must-win’ because it’s not an elimination game. But at 6-7 and with five games left, it is fair to say the Bombers have not yet delivered on so much of the promise that surrounded this squad when the season opened.

Granted, they did open the year minus their starting quarterback in Matt Nichols for the first three games, but the recent four-game losing streak – which ended last week with a win over the lowly Montreal Alouettes – certainly saw the perception of this squad change across the Canadian Football League.

And not for the better.

So, Saturday night is an opportunity to change the narrative for the good. Beat an Eskimos squad that is two points ahead of them in the standings – and in their yard – and the Bombers may silence some of the growing list of critics. That, of course, has no meaning whatsoever in the Bombers clubhouse. Inside the room these guys are convinced their ceiling is still high.

“We definitely haven’t peaked yet and that’s frustrating when you lose and encouraging when you win,” said running back Andrew Harris. “That’s the biggest thing. We’ve got to be able to find a way to win no matter what’s going on.”

“We’re not in panic mode or anything like that,” added Darvin Adams. “We know the situation. We know what’s in front of us and we know what we’ve got to do. One of the most important things that I saw from the game this past week was the guys noticing the things we could do more on the film. That’s a great thing, always, when you win the game and you’ve got guys who still see there’s more we can do.”

The danger here for this Bombers squad is they are running out of runway. This team will be ultimately judged by what happens in November. What’s critical is to get to the meaningful games in November – and that means taking care of business ASAP.

2. REILLY TO DUKE OVER AND OVER AND OVER AGAIN

The numbers – both in season and with respect to his career – just keep piling up for Eskimos quarterback Mike Reilly. Here’s one to consider as the Bombers prep to play him this week: Reilly has thrown for 300 yards or better in seven games this year, moving him into the CFL’s Top 10 in that department. More importantly, the Eskimos are 5-2 this year in games in which he hits that number.

Reilly’s primary target this year is receiver Duke Williams, who is on a 1,800-yard pace and averaging 19.1 yards per catch. He leads the CFL in receiving yardage (1,300) and receiving touchdowns (10) and at 6-3, 225 pounds has the skillset to make the tough catch over the middle and the speed to burn defences.

“If we allow the offence to dictate what they want to do as far as launching the ball and just getting explosions (plays) then it’s going to be a tough day,” said Bombers cornerback Chris Randle. “We’ve got to understand that Reilly is a mobile threat, we’ve got to understand where #81 (Williams) is at all times. We’ve got to understand where Vidal (Hazelton) and #8 (Kenny Stafford)… all their threats, from a secondary standpoint. Defensive line and our front, they’ve got to be able to corral Reilly and make it tough on him. When we’re all working on one accord we’ve got a good chance of winning.”

What Reilly does more effectively than any CFL pivot is trust his receivers by launching passes and then letting them go make plays. Of his 27 touchdown passes this year, 17 have covered 20 yards or more.

“Reilly is like… a basketball analogy, but he’s like Steph Curry,” added Randle. “He’s like a 3-point shooter. He’s playing the odds, he’s got good aim, he has good arc and he has range, too. He can put it in the bucket from anywhere on the field. And that’s dangerous if you’re a defensive back. The best thing you can do is put a body on a body and challenge them, especially when you’ve got guys like Duke Williams going up there and positioning themselves to get the ball at a high level. It definitely presents it’s challenges, but we’re confident in our guys and our abilities.”

3. COUNTERING THE AIR ATTACK

The Bombers have established themselves over the past two years as a dominant ground game team. They again lead the CFL in rushing yards per game (131.8), behind the work of Andrew Harris and the offensive line.

But if this should turn into a track meet – as CFL games often do – the Bombers will need their passing attack to crank it up, too. Winnipeg ranks sixth in passing yards per game (245.7), but as more teams work to limit the effectiveness of Harris both as a rusher and a receiver – his production screams out for the extra attention – the passing attack will need Matt Nichols, Kenbrell Thompkins, Darvin Adams, Nic Demski, Drew Wolitarsky and Weston Dressler to find some consistency through the air.

“We’ve played stretches of good football, just not full games of good football this season,” said Dressler. “Once we realize we need to be more consistent and have to put full games together we’ll have good chances to win. Every time we take the field as an offence we say, ‘We’ve got to get points on this drive’, whether that’s coming from behind or trying to build on a lead.

“That’s one thing that we’ve got to continue to get better at – if it’s the fourth quarter and we haven’t been so good offensively throughout the game, hey, if we put one drive together we’re winning this game. Those are the situations we’ve got to continue to get better on.”


THE QBS

  • Winnipeg’s Matt Nichols is 34-26 in his career as a starter and 26-14 since taking over from Drew Willy in July of 2016. He is 3-2 in the regular season against Edmonton.
  • Mike Reilly of the Eskimos has a career record of 52-39 and is 8-3 lifetime vs. the Bombers.

ROSTER SHUFFLE

The Bombers are making two changes to their 46-man roster from last week. Coming onto the roster are RB Johnny Augustine and LB Frederic Plesius; coming off are DB Robert Priester and LB Shayne Gauthier.

Kevin Fogg is listed as the starting corner – Priester started there against the Als – while Nic Demski is at slotback, although head coach Mike O’Shea indicated he could be a game-time decision. If he can’t go, Daniel Petermann would make his first CFL start.

3 BOMBERS TO WATCH

#2 Kenbrell Thompkins, SB: The long-time pro, first year CFLer is coming off his best game as a Bomber, having pulled in five catches for 94 yards against the Alouettes. Hidden in those totals: four of his five receptions were second-down conversions.
#93 Craig Roh, DE:
Jumped off the page in the win over Montreal with seven tackles and three sacks. Also had a fumble-recovery TD wiped out by penalty. The Bombers need Roh and the men up front to make Reilly squirm in the pocket.
#3 Kevin Fogg, CB/PR: Fogg returns to his spot on the corner after missing the last two games. He’ll be a busy man, as he also figures to also take on the punt-return chores.

X FACTOR

#56 Gerald Rivers, DE: The former Eskimo now has three games under his belt as a Bomber and has been productive with two sacks and seven tackles in the defensive end rotation. “I’ve got guys over there I fought with and care about and stuff like that,” said Rivers. “But they know once we’re on the field all that’s out the window. We can be cool, we can have fun after the game. I have much respect for the guys over there, love them to death but on the field I expect them to come with the same intensity.”

CRITICAL NUMBER

1-5: The Bombers are just 1-5 against their West Division rivals. First, that’s a horrible number for a team trying to host a playoff game. Second, it’s a horrible number for a team just trying to make the playoffs. Four of Winnipeg’s last five games are against the West.

MISCELLANEOUS

  • Weston Dressler has now caught at least one past in 121 consecutive games, the seventh-longest streak in CFL history. Don Narcisse is first (216), followed by Geroy Simon (188), Nik Lewis (186), Ben Cahoon (144), Tony Gabriel (137) and Jamel Richardson (124).
  • Winnipeg is 6-0 this year when winning the turnover battle and 0-7 when even or losing that ratio. Since 2016 the club is 28-3 when forcing more turnovers.
  • The Bombers were flagged for just two penalties last week, a CFL season low and the lowest total by the club since Oct. 19, 2007.
  • Winnipeg has yet to win a game when trailing after the third quarter. Since 2015 they are 3-24 when trailing after 45 minutes.
  • The Eskimos have scored 42 touchdowns this year, all on offence. They are the only CFL club without at least one defensive or special-teams touchdown.

QUOTABLE

“This is awesome. Any time the weather starts changing and it gets a little colder, when you’re putting on sweatpants and a little more clothing, that’s when you know the good stuff’s coming. And it’s right here right now.” – Bombers receiver Weston Dressler.