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November 19, 2016

Ed Tait’s Grey Cup Take: Divisional Finals Preview

Calgary Stampeders' Ryan Steed, right, breaks up a pass intended for B.C. Lions' Stephen Adekolu in the end zone during the second half of a pre-season CFL football game in Vancouver, B.C., on Friday June 20, 2014. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck

Maybe it’s too soon for Winnipeg Blue Bombers fans.

The wound might be still festering, the emotional trauma still too raw.

But if you can somehow shelve last weekend’s 32-31 loss to the B.C. Lions in the West Division Semi-Final, we might suggest watching the Leos in Calgary on Sunday to face the powerful Stampeders in the divisional final.

Why? It’s simple: whether it was B.C. or the Bombers, Sunday’s West Final should be one of the most entertaining games on the Canadian Football League schedule.

Ditto for the East Final, where the Ottawa REDBLACKS are hosting the defending Grey Cup champion Edmonton Eskimos – in a rematch of last year’s title game – who are attempting to become the first crossover team to win a title.

With all that in mind, here’s our handy-dandy guide to the CFL’s Final Four and the East and West Finals…

THE EAST FINAL

EDMONTON ESKIMOS (10-8) AT OTTAWA REDBLACKS (8-9-1)

When: Sunday, noon.
Where: TD Place, Ottawa.
Streaks: Edm: 3W; Ott.: 1L.
Season series: Ottawa won both meetings this season, 23-20 at home on Aug. 6th and 45-37 in OT in Edmonton back on June 25th.
Esks-Ott playoff history: The Eskimos and Rough Riders/REDBLACKS have met before in the postseason four times, all of them Grey Cups, in 1960, 1973, 1981, 2015.

The Edmonton Eskimos quarterback Mike Reilly passes the ball before being tackled by the Ottawa Redblacks Connor Williams during second quarter CFL action in Ottawa on Saturday, August 6, 2016. (CFL PHOTO - Patrick Doyle)

QB COMPARISON

  • Ottawa’s Henry Burris is 118-108-3 in his career with a 6-6 playoff record. He was injured early this season and lost his starting gig to Trevor Harris, then won it back. Threw for 2,419 yards with 12 TDs against nine interceptions.
  • Mike Reilly of the Eskimos is 34-27 as a starter and 2-1 in playoff games (not including the Grey Cup). He led the CFL this year with 5,554 yards passing with 28 TDs and 12 interceptions.


FYI

  • Home teams have won six of the last eight East Finals and are 11-5 since 2000.
  • The Esks are attempting to become the first team from the West to make it to the Grey Cup as a crossover. This is their fifth crossover game; they are 2-2, including last week’s win over Hamilton.
  • These two teams combined to have six 1,000-yard receivers this season, five of which will be on the field Sunday (Ottawa’s Chris Williams is out with an injury). That crew includes Adarius Bowman (120 catches for 1,761 yards and nine TDs) and Derrel Walker (109-1,589-10) of Edmonton along with Greg Ellingson (76-1,260-4), Williams (77-1,246-10), Ernest Jackson (88-1,225-10) and Brad Sinopoli (90-1,036-4).
  • Edmonton’s John White rushed for 160 yards last week, breaking a club playoff record that had stood for decades (Normie Kwong had 152 against Saskatchewan in 1958).


3 STORYLINES

TOUGH, NOT INDESTRUCTIBLE:

Eskimos QB Mike Reilly filled the skies this year, but also took a nasty shot in last week’s semi-final win over Hamilton and did not finish. He’s declared himself good to go – this guy would drop to pass back while prone to a gurney if the docs would let him – but he’ll be an even bigger target for an Ottawa defence that knows his left shoulder, non-throwing, is hurting.

If he can’t go or finish, James Franklin, who has looked so good in relief over the past couple of years, would be thrust into the spotlight.

SMILIN’ HANK/RAGING HANK:

Henry Burris has been twice named the CFL’s Most Outstanding Player (2010 with Calgary; last year with Ottawa), graces the cover of the 2016 CFL Guide & Record Book, is a future hall of famer and yet still feels disrespected, as evidenced by this rant from earlier in the year. Can Burris channel that rage to exact some revenge on an Eskimos team that won the Grey Cup against Ottawa a year ago?

SPECIAL (?) TEAMS:

The REDBLACKS will miss Williams from their offence, but also his return abilities. Those chores have fallen to veteran Tristan Jackson. The Eskimos don’t have a dynamic return man – former Bomber Troy Stoudermire had the gig, but Shakir Bell and Brandon Zylstra shared the duties last week in Hamilton.

Edmonton has a decided advantage in the kicking department, as Sean Whyte connected on 45 of his 48 field goal attempts (93.8 percent) while Ottawa’s Chris Milo was all over the map. He was eight of 13 (62 percent) from 40-49 yards while Whyte was a perfect seven of seven.

ESKS ‘X’ FACTOR

#83 Brandon Zylstra, WR:

Both Adarius Bowman and Derrel Walker garner a lot of attention from opposition defences – they combined for 229 receptions, 3,350 yards and 19 TDs, after all – and that has left some room for Zylstra. He’s a sure-handed target with good size (6-3, 220 pounds) from Division III Concordia College in Minnesota who has become a favourite alternate target for Reilly. Zylstra played in six games and pulled in 34 passes for 508 yards and three TDs.

REDBLACKS ‘X’ FACTOR

#37 Mossis Madu, RB:

Ottawa passed for a league-best 6,191 yards this year, the most by any team since 2004. The former Ticats back started six games for Ottawa down the stretch and averaged 81.7 yards per game. That’s a massive total when combined with what they can do through the air.

HOW THE ESKIMOS WIN:

They’ve been following a certain formula dating back to last year that has more than worked: they’ve got the 2015 Grey Cup rings as evidence. Edmonton has more offensive weapons than an ‘Expendables’ movie. They can win a track meet with just about any team in the CFL and if their defence can turn the ball over – their 30 takeaways was third-fewest in the CFL – then they’ll be back in the championship game.

HOW THE REDBLACKS WIN:

The Ticats limited Bowman and Walker to just six catches for 84 yards combined last week, but were stung by John White and the Edmonton ground game. Ottawa’s front will need to push the Eskimos’ massive O-line around and get to Reilly, or at least keep him in the pocket to see if his shoulder can take a pounding. Offensively, they’ll need to test an Eskimos defence that surrendered 305.1 yards passing per game, third most in the league.

 


 

 

THE WEST FINAL

B.C. LIONS (12-6) at CALGARY STAMPEDERS (15-2-1)

When: Sunday, 3:30 p.m.
Where: McMahon Stadium, Calgary.
Streaks: B.C.: 4W; Cal.: 1L.
Season series: The Stamps won the season series 2-1. The Lions were one of only two teams to beat Calgary this year with a 20-18 victory in the opener back on June 25th (Montreal was the other in a regular season finale in which regulars were rested). Calgary won the other two meetings with the Lions, 44-41 on July 29th and 37-9 on Aug. 19th.
Lions-Stamps playoff history: These two clubs have met 12 different times in the playoffs (the 1964 West Final was a best of three) with the Stamps holding a 10-4 advantage. The Stamps have won the last three visits (2015, 2008 and 2001).

Calgary Stampeders' Lemar Durant, left, watches the ball but fails to make the reception as B.C. Lions' Ryan Phillips grabs his arm during the second half of a CFL football game in Vancouver, B.C., on August 19, 2016. The rested, but idle Calgary Stampeders host the battle-hardened B.C. Lions in the CFL West Division final Sunday. They had the best records in the CFL this season, but only one can go to the Grey Cup in Toronto on Nov. 27. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck

QB COMPARISON

  • Calgary’s Bo Levi Mitchell: His numbers are astonishing – 43-7-1 in the regular season as a starter – but he is ‘only’ 2-1 in playoff starts. Mitchell completed 68 per cent of his passes this year for 5,385 yards, a league-best 32 TDs against just eight interceptions and is a slam dunk to be named the CFL’s Most Outstanding Player.
  • Jonathon Jennings of the Lions is 15-9 this year in his first full season as B.C.’s starter. He hit on 67 per cent of his passes for 5,226 yards with 27 TDs and a league-high 15 interceptions – five against the Bombers.


FYI

  • Finishing first in the West hardly guarantees a spot in the Grey Cup. First-place teams are 24-19 (.558) in West Finals since 1972 and are only 3-3 in the last six since 2010.
  • The Lions 19-point comeback against the Bombers last week (down 25-9) is the second largest in CFL playoff history. Ottawa trailed Toronto in 1960 before rallying for a 21-20 victory in the East Final.
  • The Stampeders were a perfect 9-0 at McMahon Stadium this year and haven’t lost at home since Oct. 10th of last season.
  • Calgary rested some regulars in their regular season finale against Montreal. Of note: the Stamps have not lost consecutive games since November of 2013, a stretch of 58 games.


3 STORYLINES

REST VS. RUST:

The Stamps clinched first in the West eons ago and opted to take their foot off the gas in their last game of the regular season back on Oct. 30th. They had their second bye in the final week of the season and then watched while the Lions and Bombers battled last Sunday in Vancouver. That’s a ton of inactivity in a game that is built so much on routine. Bomber fans know what a team losing its mojo looks like – Winnipeg was cruising along at 14-2 in 2001 before resting regulars, dropping to 14-4 and then after a win in the East Final, falling to an 8-10 Stampeders team in the Grey Cup.

The Lions, on the other hand, went to war with the Bombers in a classic West Division Semi-Final and while they took their knocks – most notably receiver Manny Arceneaux, who did not finish the game but did practice later in the week – they are also battle hardened heading into Calgary after also clinching second in the West as part of a run that now has them on a four-game win streak.

PUSHING THE PILE:

As much as the entire league fixated on all the gaudy numbers being posted by Mitchell – and they were impressive – the Stamps do have the pieces to go old school in the playoffs if they need go grind it out along the ground, finishing third overall in rushing yards per game (96.9) and featuring the human bulldozer that is power back Jerome Messam, who led the CFL with 1,198 rushing yards.

Funny thing about that… the Lions were the No. 1 rushing attack in the CFL this year (115.7 yards per game) and do it with Jeremiah Johnson (809), Anthony Allen (436), quarterback Jonathon Jennings (363) and Chris Rainey (309).

Expect both attacks to air it out Sunday afternoon, but the team that best controls the line of scrimmage and the time of possession could be punching its ticket to the 104th Grey Cup.

TAKING A PUNCH AND COUNTERING:

The Bombers lived this in September in their second visit to Calgary, falling behind 24-0 before rallying to take a lead in the final minute… only to blow it as Mitchell drove the team into range for a 52-yard field goal with no time remaining.

The Stamps jump on their opponents early, having out-scored them 138-58 in first quarters this year and not surrendering more than nine points in the opening 15 minutes of any game this year. They led after the first in 15 of 18 games and are 46-8 since 2012 when leading after one. Those are frightening numbers for the Leos, who fell behind to the Bombers last week but did rally. The Stamps have proven much more adept at wrapping their fingers around the throats of their opponents and squeezing hard.

LIONS ‘X’ FACTOR

#2 Chris Rainey, RB/KR:

He’s a dangerous threat as a returner, running back and receiver who can make would-be tacklers look ridiculous when he gets into open space. He led the CFL in combined yardage this year (2,945) and probably should get even more offensive touches, given his production.

STAMPS ‘X’ FACTOR

#14 Roy Finch, RB/KR:

A one-time member of the REDBLACKS, Finch was signed by the Stamps in May after a tryout with the New England Patriots. He appeared in 16 games this year and provided instant field position for the Stamps, finishing second to the Bombers’ Quincy McDuffie in kickoff return yards and second to the Bombers’ Kevin Fogg in punt returns.

HOW THE LIONS WIN:

They’ll have to cross their fingers the Stamps take a few minutes to find their playoff legs after a long layoff and catch them with some killer shots. The most effective way to limit Calgary is by keeping Mitchell & Co. off the field. As cliché as that sounds, it is important. As an example: in falling behind to the Stamps 24-0 back in September, the Bombers only held the ball for 12 of the first half’s 30 minutes. The Lions will need some massive pressure from their front seven, as their secondary can be exposed without that kind of heat on the QB.

HOW THE STAMPEDERS WIN:

They can win in any matter of ways and so it’s time to stick to the script that has made them so dominant all year. If Mitchell is locked in early, this could be over before the intermission. And if he’s not, they have the beef to dominant the trenches. Calgary’s defence, working under first-year coordinator DeVone Claybrooks, is immensely talented and has the ability to show a variety of looks to confuse Jennings.


 

TAIT’S CALL: An all-Alberta Grey Cup

East Final: Edmonton defeats Ottawa 31-20

West Final: Calgary defeats B.C. 36-22